Is india doomed forever? a review on 2009 election results

Now the long expected election results is out.  Contrary to the popular views, the results was a shock to everyone, both to the winning UPA and to the losing NDA.  The reason is that this result is unexpected, and in some sense, unfeasible, considering the so much of anti-incumbency and confusion that existed in the past few months.

I strongly believe, that this election result appears to be highly artificial, and that some external/internal forces had acted on it to alter the verdict, to the non-popular italian lady and the rubber stamp Manmohan Singh.  While i could not specify exactly the kind of riggings/manipulations that have happened, i just wanted to list down the possibilities and the reasons why i believe the results could be largely manipulated.

I would analyse this point NOT on NDA’s strength, but rather on the position of UPA before the polls.

Status of the Parties in the Pre-Poll Scenario:

Its clearly evident, that UPA was running on a heavy anti-incumbency factor, and was in a state of confusion, with infighting among its UPA partners.  The Congress was continuously losing the state elections since 2004, except for few states like rajasthan and delhi.  Even in rajasthan, congress won only because of BJP’s rivalries and it could not secure a comfortable majority.

And then the famous UPA parliamentry scam, where a group of opposition MP’s were bought by the ruling congress (but the principal architect being the US).  Congress earned a bad name after that scam, and its popularity further plunged, because of the simultaneous bomb blasts in major indian cities, within weeks after the vote for cash scam.  (While this is widely believed to be handiwork of congress and its american masters to cover up the rumbles raised by the opposition over the Vote for cash scam).

The congress also announced series of freebies, like the 60,000 crore loan waiver for farmers etc, which ultimately did not create any positive impact on it.  The situation further worsened with skyrocketing price rises where a kg of rice peaked from Rs.20 to Rs. 40 at the time of polling.

The other UPA partners also doesnt seems to doing well.  The DMK was itself at heavy anti-incumbency, while the congress had all sort of issues with other UPA allies, like RJD, paswan and Sharad Pawar.  Most of the UPA constituents  fielded candidates against congress in many places.

In tamilnadu, Jayalalitha was riding at her peak, with even some of the pro-congress news channels giving her a sweep of tamilnadu.  People were disgusted at DMK’s rampant corruption and inactiveness and mainly its double standard over Lankan tamil issue.  The people were so angry that they were of the opinion that other than DMK & Congress, any other party can be voted.

In such a scenario, the outcome of the POLLS is highly shocking and unbelievable.

Analysis of the Poll Outcomes:

Let me start with Tamilnadu.  The DMK has won 18 seats, while the ADMK won only 9.  This itself is unbelievable, considering the electoral alliance.  The DMK had only congress and VCK, while the ADMK camp has MDMK, PMK, and the communists.

Also, the winning margins of DMK candidates are very high, which again raises the suspicion.  Such high margins are possible only when there is a wave in favor of DMK, which clearly is absent in TN.

Also the finance minister P. Chidambaram was trailing till the last round, but suddenly declared as winner.  Expecting more details on this.

At the national level too, there was NO wave in favor of congress, to attain such big victory.  It got around 200 seats on its own, which is beyond its capability in a genuine contest and also in terms of its position and popularity, it is beyond its reach.

In andhra pradesh, the opposition had put up a strong alliance, and PRP remained a third front.  It seems the congress is nearing majority, which again is very difficult considering the grand alliance and also its anti-incumbency.  The TDP really had a favorable position, along with the support of communists and the TRS.

Is there any behind the scene riggings & Manipulations?

Those who are from tamilnadu, will immediately say “YES” on seeing the outcome.  But on the national level, its really difficult to say so, in a generic way.  But i believe, something has taken place to bring out the outcome.

The main reason for my prediction is that the way the congress projected itself in medias, and the way it was confident of 200 seats, and the relaxing posture from it, all make me suspect that the poll outcome was determined well ahead of the polls.  If we look at the 200 mark of congress, it is more or less the same it was boasting of in the medias.  (one may say, they said it out of their estimation..  but no party can predict as close as this, amidst an anti-incumbancy situation).

So what are the ways, the polls could be manipulated or rigged?

Hacking of EVM Software:

This is one area, where we cannot reject it completely.  Being a software engineer myself, i am aware of how much if’s and else’ we can inject in to the software that runs in the EVMs.  ie, we can implant any amount of logic or possibilities in to it, so that the results are obtained in the way they wanted.  Let me quote the few possibilities that could be hacked in to the EVMs.

1. For every 10 votes in each party, one vote is transferred to the congress.

2. At the end of voting, just by pressing/holding a specific button, the final results are adjusted that a specific % of votes (say 5%) from other parties are transferred to the congress.

3. When the results are counted, point two can happen.

4. A passive secret minute wireless device integrated in to EVMs, known only to specific people, so that the results could be manipulated after the elections, while the EVM’s are stored in a central location.  The person can do this through remote, just outside that building, and that he need to break in to the building.  I believe, this is highly possible given the current technologies, and also due to the fact that the hacker can establish wireless connection to each of the EVM’s separately.

Or there can be a software that gets the data from all the EVM’s at a time, so that the hacker can adjust the data all at once from a remote location, then update them to the respective EVMs in a batch mode.  This is the most effective way of poll rigging.

EVMs with such manipulating software/wireless devices need not be used at all the locations.  Rather, a specific set of seats, where congress is strong but could not win might have been chosen, and such EVMS might have been delivered to those constituencies.  By this, the possibility of such fraud being detected would be less, as such manipulated EVMs would be distributed among regular ones, so that the parties could not detect it effectively.  I think its time consuming to verify all the EVMS, and that the parties might not be aware of such conspiracies and hence would not have thought of checking or may not know how to check.

Also, even the polling officers might not be knowing this, as the software is developed by not more than a team of 10 engineers.  Only those who developed the software know of its functioning, and only those who designed the hardware chips know of the wireless feature.

Since the software of the EVM’s could be updated at any time any where, through either data card, or through wireless (in case if its fitted), this thing could have been done at any time of the election process.  Even at the last minute.  It has to be noted again, that the time to reinstall the software might not take more than 10 minutes.

Rigging Elections:

Coming to the next possibility, the poll rigging has been another effective tool to manipulate the vote count.  Its a known fact and it happened in the past, that at the end of the polls (by 4-5 PM), the booth manager, if he is a supporter of the ruling party, facilitates the respective booth agents to fill the unpolled votes to their party.  The other party agents are either blackmailed, or subverted or threatened or thrown out of the room by using some false accusations.

But this could not be widely practiced, as it might expose the ruling party.  However, the congress being extra constitutional party enjoying full media support, such incidents are never reported.  When the congress could indulge in buying out votes in the parliament unmindful of the public reaction, its no wonder that it would fear for public reaction at the local booth level.

Particularly in Tamilnadu, the DMK has shown the way of how to do rigging without getting accounted for.

The Money Power:

I think, the BJP secured a self-goal, when it raised its pitch over bringing back swiss money.  This backfired, as a tiny part of the swiss money would have been channeled to power broke the elections.  Considering the fact that more than a two lakh crore rupees are stuffed in swiss bank, its natural for the corresponding secret account holders to divert a part of that to prevent BJP from coming to power, thus saving themselves from a government scrutiny.  No wonder, even the congress persons themeselves would have lot of money stashed in swiss bank, which they might have used.

Now coming to the role of money in influencing the voters, i could accept it as a factor but not a deciding factor in the results.  Because in the karnataka elections both ruling and opposition parties distributed money, and ultimately the BJP won through, inspite of congress distributing money.

Another possibility is to silence/bribe the BJP/opposition booth commitee members in key constituencies, to favor congress by being within BJP.  I believe, there are many such moles available in BJP.

And the last thing is the distribution of money to the voters.  In tamilnadu, it was taking place at an unprecendented scale, where for each constituency, around 50 crores were spent by DMK and the congress.  This could not be matched by ADMK.

Deliberate Error in Election result:

I dont know how far the possibility is, but i am NOT ruling out this option.  What if the person who announces the result in each constituency,  manipulates in favor of the ruling party.  Who is going to verify it or recount it?  The respective booth representative just notes down what is being announced.

However i am aware that this is not that much easy.

The power of beurocracy:

And finally, i am coming to the most important factor.  The absolute power of beurocracy, both in terms of governmental power and also in terms of their Unions.

In tamilnadu, its an open secret that the ADMK government was brought down last time, because of the conspiracies of the government servants.  Jayalalitha came down heavily on the government employees, when they attempted to blackmail the government.

This was confirmed by me at some of my friends circle where their parents are government servants.  But i could not speculate on how they could have done it.  There are many possibilities/opportunities, where they could do this at various levels, right from polling booth.

Is india Doomed for ever?

Now, let’s consider the situation of India.

• The President of India is a congress selected person.
• The unaccountable super PM is an italian lady.
• The PM of india is the nominated person, who is the most obedient to his italian masters.
• The Chief Election Commissioner is Navin Chawla, who is a Congress stooge.
• Many government positions now appointed with person of congress loyalty.

I am really concerned that using these high level circles, the congress could do anything in the future.  Let me speculate some of the possibilities.

1. The BJP governments at the state level would be brought down, using any means.  Now Navin Chawla being the CEC, the congress has full co-operation from him to do anything they want.  Earlier, when gopalswamy was the CEC, he was very strict, and even the communists were able to come back to power under him.  And now Navin Chawla took over, the results are clear in west bengal and kerala.  The communists should also think over.

2. The christian missionaries will continue to hold sway over india.  More amount of money will be pumped in to india unaudited.  More conversions will happen, and the hindu religious institutions will be targetted again.  Conversions will go on in full swing.  The demography would be altered in the next general election, where the missionaries will try to increase the christian population to 15 crore, while the muslim population will increase to 20%.   So combinedly, they will have 35% sway over voting.  Since the christian population is under the church control, and muslim population under the control of respective mosques,  in the name of minorityism and secularism, congress will buy back these vote banks, while splitting the already fractured hindu votebanks.

3.The temples will continue to be in government control, and left to its decay.  Now itself, most of the temples are without priests , or in a shabby condition where priests get a paltry sum of Rs. 500 per month.  In another 5 years, most of the remaining priests would leave away.  More importantlly, the next generation of priests is virtually absent, as almost all the chidren of the current priest family prefer other jobs.  The congress will never do anything to revive temples or Hinduism.

3. Rural areas would continue to be neglected.  More people would migrate to cities, and more slums to be created.  More infrastructure bottle neck at cities, and there would be two indias living.  one in urban with all facilities, and the other in rural continuing to be neglected.

4. The security of India is already compromised with china encircling us, and Nepal in Chaos.  It has to be seen, whether the congress, now free of communists pressure will act against the maoists or will continue a blind stand against them.

5. Afzal guru will not be hanged

6. Rajiv killer Nalini will be pardoned.

7. More looting of india by these men, and more money to be stashed in swiss bank by these people.  No drive against corruption, nor any nationalistic sentiments.  Indians would continue to de-indianised, and the cultural and spiritual base would continue to degrade/dwindle.

There are many more things that would happen.  But for one thing is sure.  India is doomed for ever, unless some thing drastic happens, and a nationalistic government gets to power.